KONG Lingxu, SUN Lehua, ZHANG Hao, LIU Chang, YANG Xiuyu, YANG Cheng
Under the background of increasing penetration of renewable energy and profound changes in the load structure of the power system, frequent extreme weather caused by climate change is likely to cause severe power fluctuations on both sides of the source and load of the power system, aggravate the risk of imbalance between supply and demand, and threaten the safe and stable operation of the system. In order to quantify the risk of extreme scenes, this paper proposes a refined source-load bilateral extreme scene construction method coupled with key meteorological factors. Firstly, the influence mechanism of meteorological factors such as temperature and wind speed on the source-load sides is analyzed, and the wind power, photovoltaic output model and temperature control load model considering the coupling effect of meteorological factors are established. Secondly, based on the historical actual scene, the key meteorological factors affecting the operation of the system under extreme weather events are clarified, and the principle of extreme scene generation is proposed. Two typical extreme scenarios of 'extreme high temperature and no wind' and 'extreme low temperature and cold wave' are constructed. Finally, combined with the actual meteorological data of a certain area in Northeast China, the corresponding scenarios are constructed and analyzed. The examples show that: on the one hand, the proposed extreme scenario construction method can generate extreme scenarios with physical authenticity; on the other hand, the scenario constructed by the scenario construction method can effectively quantify the imbalance between supply and demand in extreme scenarios, and provide a scenario basis for the risk assessment and defense strategy formulation of the subsequent research system.