SHI Xiaoyu, WANG Xin, WANG Gang
In order to adapt to the "dual carbon"transformation goal of future electric power development in Jilin Province,considering the role of multiple influencing factors under the new situation,it is necessary to integrate social and carbon emission related influencing factors to improve the accuracy of power demand forecasting.In the current context,the existing models are still facing challenges in terms of stability and accuracy of electricity demand forecasting.In order to address these challenges,firstly,multiple factors affecting power demand are analyzed through system dynamics model.Based on rigorous correlation analysis,key indicators that have a significant impact on power demand are further screened.Six strongly related indicators,namely permanent population,industrial added value,total energy consumption,low-carbon index of energy consumption structure,per capita GDP and GDP,were determined, and the introduction of carbon emission indicators was increased,highlighting the innovative attention in the "double carbon"aspect.Then,Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)was used to optimize the key parameters of the Support Vector Machines (SVM)model,and the PSO-SVM power demand prediction model was constructed.The problem that the existing model is easy to fall into the local optimal solution is overcome.The effectiveness of the PSO-SVM model is verified by comparison with the traditional SVM model,BP model and the optimized PSO-BP model.In power forecasting,the model not only has high accuracy,but also shows a faster training speed.Finally,the forecast model is applied to the power demand forecast of Jilin Province from 2023 to 2028,which provides a strong support and reference for power planning and decision-making.